We find ourselves on the eve of what will either be a momentous progressive victory — a Democratic Socialist elected chief executive in a city of eight million — or an equally historic disgrace for the Democratic Party and New York. As of this writing, these outcomes are separated by two polling points. The usual forces have failed to anoint a boring apparatchik, a Scott or a Brad, because they no longer have the juice. The Times, having already gift-wrapped God knows how many electoral victories for Andrew Cuomo, has wiped its hands clean; the editorial board is not endorsing candidates this year, lest they show their asses any further.
I think Zohran Mamdani is what he appears to be: an inoffensive coastal millennial who went to Bowdoin and performed in a multilingual rap duo. He is not a radical, except by the standards of corporate donors, and he represents a city where the average rent is $4,100. He’s mobilized thousands of canvassers and believes in what he’s selling. He debates and interviews brilliantly. I think it’s weird that he wears a suit every day — it’s giving Pete Buttigieg — especially when Cuomo dresses like he’s in a motorcycle gang. Mamdani is on the right side of a brutal ethnic slaughter, an obvious and irrelevant ethical stance which nevertheless distinguishes him from the elder opposition.
All evidence indicates he would govern better than any mayor in my lifetime — a hilariously low bar — and if his agenda proves too ambitious, he’d at least stick to his principles and act as an essential advocate. That was the point of AOC, as I understood it: if she couldn’t pass legislation, she’d raise hell and call liberals on their shit.1 This race provided the rare opening for a progressive; with Cuomo and Eric Adams in the running, an aggressive left-wing campaign became imperative. We’re tired of being governed by old weirdos simply because old weirdos are the most reliable voting bloc.
As the polling gap narrows, I find myself ecstatic at the prospect of a Zohran victory and wincing at his missteps. His freeze-the-rent platform has been grossly misrepresented by the press as well as his own campaign. Mamdani has proposed to suspend rent increases on rent-stabilized units, which account for only a quarter of the housing stock. His campaign ads have done little to make this distinction, yet the promise — “As your next mayor, I will freeze your rent” — is the core of the campaign. He won’t, in fact, freeze my rent. I don’t even know anyone who lives in a rent-stabilized apartment, because if you luck into one, you stay there for sixty years and die in it. Rent-stabilized units, by definition, are priced below market; at most, they are subject to rent increases of a few percent.
This gesture does little to address a crisis, nor is it unprecedented: Bill de Blasio did it three times. Rent-stabilized tenants are less transient, more likely to be registered at stable addresses, more likely to vote in primaries. The tactic is decent if minor policy — by making it his tagline, Mamdani’s misled the electorate. He’s pissed off the business class; his opponents are calling him a pie-in-the-sky idealist over a maneuver that mayors do all the time. Voters enamored by the idea of an actual rent freeze (I would very much like my rent frozen! It increased 80% between 2020 and 2023!) will be left hanging. Mamdani has shared vague plans to increase housing stock, requiring a governing coalition that would not seem to exist.
Buses, however, will be free! I’ve lived in a number of different neighborhoods, and confess I’ve only ever taken the bus to my grandparents’ house on the edge of Queens. Sometimes it never shows up; my order-of-operations is subway for distance, Citi Bike for tactical strikes, walking when all else fails. Subway fare is the state’s jurisdiction, a more formidable barrier, whereas the mayor wields influence over the city’s roadways. Perhaps you’ve noticed a theme — this is a really exciting proposal if you live off Union Turnpike.
What about COVID, the most immediate, material threat to New Yorkers’ welfare? New York was the launchpad for a pandemic that’s killed 1.3 million Americans; each successive wave seized upon the city’s density and transit hubs. New Yorkers are forced to share air — in transit, at work, at home, walking down the street — at rates exponentially greater than most Americans. We’re pushed indoors during cold months, occupy cramped spaces, and face more frequent exposure. If we’d had less craven leadership, New York — and by extension, the broader world — would be much better off. Mamdani isn’t talking about it, nor are any of his opponents. I don’t know how you stage a working-class campaign without acknowledging an ongoing pandemic, but I hope N95 masks will be encouraged at our socialist grocery stores.
With two weeks until the primary, the Israel furor is being ginned up; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, typically, waited until the last possible moment to endorse Mamdani over Cuomo. It’s unclear whether the ranked-choice format will help or hinder a progressive with Mamdani’s profile. One consequence of ranked-choice voting is you’re compelled to engage your dumbest neighbors — babying them, using language of solidarity — in hopes that they inadvertently boost your preferred candidate:
For as long as I can remember Harry Siegel has been a roving Municipal Politics Oracle. He talks spicy online but has the politics of a Reagan Democrat; he blurs the line between reportage and punditry, and is older than he pretends to be. In late May he staged a chummy interview with Mamdani — the Daily News assigned it — then took to Twitter with infantilizing commentary:
Well, Harry, it’s a two-man race. The “experience” candidate — who continues to lead polls — killed tens of thousands of New Yorkers, lied about it, and resigned in shame rather than face impeachment over sexual harassment. We know what an Andrew Cuomo administration looks like. In what world is his experience a qualification? He’s barely campaigning, ducking reporters, and has not lived in New York City during my lifetime. You don’t care what Cuomo does, how he governs, so long as he talks sternly on television. You’re looking for a dad, not an administrator.
This is what Mamdani is up against. In 2021 the average primary voter was 54; New Yorkers in their sixties and seventies were the most likely to vote. They are comfortable, which makes them uncurious, which makes them uninformed, which makes them dangerous. They live in rent-stabilized apartments or own them outright. They inherited co-ops or NYCHA units (remember when New York used to build those? I don’t) and will bequeath them to underachieving offspring. They own cars, leave them on curbs in Turtle Bay and Midwood and Ozone Park, move them twice a week for street sweeping, and are red-assed about congestion pricing. They saw an unhoused person two years ago and believe crime is at an all-time high.
The coalition of reactionaries and low-information voters is an election-carrying minority. There’s no compromise candidate, because boomers threw their weight behind a murderer and a sex pest.2 They will get dressed, stand in line, and cast ballots for a guy they vaguely remember seeing on CNN. Even better if they remember his father — things seemed better then. More affordable, anyway. God forbid anyone else experience the same.
previously: The Friend From The Television | Getting around
it, uh, did not work out that way, topic for another blog.
Another banger from Harry. No shit, buddy!
one of the best things I've read on this parade of goofiness masquerading as mayoral election
- I think ppl have come around on how bernie didn't do shit in dc but his legacy will be as an outspoken anchor for a generation of lefties and it's probably a net good if all AOC does it carry that torch forward
- I think being a digital native who does the dumb easy right things on israel and trans rights is more important for any american politician than "experience" (I'm aware that makes me a bizarro trump voter but whatever)
- I'm rent stabilized, it's a really funny story